Daily Maximum Rainfall Forecast Affected by Tropical Cyclones using Grey Theory
نویسندگان
چکیده
This research aims to develop a model for forecasting daily maximum rainfall caused by tropical cyclones over Northeastern Thailand during August and September 2022 2023. In the past, ARIMA or ARIMAX method forecast was used in research. It is short-term prediction. this research, Grey Theory applied as it an approach that manages limited discrete data long-term forecasting. The has never been affected Thailand. GM(1,1) analyzed with highest cumulative of years 2018–2021, from weather stations 17 provinces. results showed 2023, only Nong Bua Lamphu province had 100 mm, while other provinces values less than 70 mm. For there were five average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) approximately 20 percent; therefore, can be real scenarios. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-08-02 Full Text: PDF
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Civil Engineering Journal
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2676-6957', '2476-3055']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2022-08-08-02