Daily Maximum Rainfall Forecast Affected by Tropical Cyclones using Grey Theory

نویسندگان

چکیده

This research aims to develop a model for forecasting daily maximum rainfall caused by tropical cyclones over Northeastern Thailand during August and September 2022 2023. In the past, ARIMA or ARIMAX method forecast was used in research. It is short-term prediction. this research, Grey Theory applied as it an approach that manages limited discrete data long-term forecasting. The has never been affected Thailand. GM(1,1) analyzed with highest cumulative of years 2018–2021, from weather stations 17 provinces. results showed 2023, only Nong Bua Lamphu province had 100 mm, while other provinces values less than 70 mm. For there were five average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) approximately 20 percent; therefore, can be real scenarios. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-08-02 Full Text: PDF

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas

Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. [1] We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in...

متن کامل

Application of Grey System Theory in Rainfall Estimation

Considering the fact that Iran is situated in an arid and semi-arid region, rainfall prediction for the management of water resources is very important and necessary. Researchers have proposed various prediction methods that have been utilized in such areas as water and meteorology, especially water resources management. The present study aimed at predicting rainfall amounts using Grey Predicti...

متن کامل

Validation of Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Forecasts for Australian Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) forecasts provide estimates of 24 h rainfall accumulation in landfalling tropical cyclones based on the advection of a field of satellite-estimated precipitation. Validation of TRaP forecasts for five Australian tropical cyclones during the 2003-04 season showed significant skill in predicting heavy rainfall. The predictions of maximum rain at landfall compare...

متن کامل

Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western...

متن کامل

Clouds in Tropical Cyclones

Clouds within the inner regions of tropical cyclones are unlike those anywhere else in the atmosphere. Convective clouds contributing to cyclogenesis have rotational and deep intense updrafts but tend to have relatively weak downdrafts. Within the eyes of mature tropical cyclones, stratus clouds top a boundary layer capped by subsidence. An outward-sloping eyewall cloud is controlled by adjustm...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Civil Engineering Journal

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2676-6957', '2476-3055']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2022-08-08-02